Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 4-8

Last pick of the year! West Virginia vs. Rutgers UNDER 44.5

UPDATE: In a poetic finish, this ended 24-21 so I lose by half a point.

Finish 4-9 this year and 31-22-1 (58.5%) over four years.

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 4-7

This week: Carolina Panthers (+3) @ NY Jets

UPDATE: The descent continues.... Jets win, Jets win... now 4-8. Last pick of season coming next weekend.

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 4-6

This week: Indiana Hoosiers (+2.5) vs. Purdue

UPDATE: Uh oh, Purdue wins 38-21, dropping me to 4-7 and guaranteeing me a losing season after three winning seasons. All the other dogs I liked came through. Sheesh.

Football Lock of the Week

SAN MARCOS, Texas -

Record: 3-6

This week: Nevada (-7) vs. Fresno State

UPDATE: Nevada SMOKES Fresno, 52-14. Record: 4-6.

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 3-5

This week: Oklahoma (-4.5) @ Nebraska

UPDATE: A Keystone-Kops performance by the superior OK team resulted in a 10-3 loss. Record: 3-6

Football Lock of the Week

WASHINGTON, DC -

Record: 2-5

This week: Missouri (-4) @ Colorado

UPDATE: big win for Missouri moves me to 3-5.

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 2-4

This week: USC (-20.5) vs. Oregeon St.

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 2-3

This week: Wake Forest (+7) @ Clemson

UPDATE: Wake was getting pummeled so badly, I'm not even going to look at the final score, but that drops me to 2-4. Already more losses for me than the entire 2006 season.

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 1-3

Gotta go with home town love this week: Seattle Seahawks (-1) vs. Jacksonville

UPDATE: 41-0 Seahawks. The AP story on the game said the Jags looked "bewildered". Record: 2-3

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 1-2.

This week: BYU (-24) vs. Utah State

this game starts in 20 mins! Lay the lumber RIGHT NOW

UPDATE: Utah State scores a touchdown with five seconds left to cover the number??? 35-17. Jesus mary and joseph. Mark down the Utah St. coach as a guy who knows the pointspreads. Record: 1-3.

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 1-1

This week: Georgia (-12) vs. Arizona St.

UPDATE: When did Dennis Erickson teams start showing spine and grit on the road? They lost 20-17, so I fall to 1-2.

Football Lock of the Week

NEW YORK, New York -

Record: 1-0

This week: Cardinals @ Jaguars UNDER 42.5

UPDATE: Jacksonville got garbage-time points, unfortunately, to push the game over. Record: 1-1.

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington - I was 8-5 (61.5%) last year and 27-13-1 (67.5%) over 3 years.

So let's get started!

This week:
Wake Forest (-3) vs. Stanford

UPDATE: Wake scores a TD with two seconds left to cover the number, 24-17!

Record: 1-0

More reasons not to declare a national crisis when someone misses a mortgage payment

SEATTLE, Washington - We the public continue to receive news every month about the percentage of homeowners who are behind on their mortgage payments or in foreclosure. The impression usually given is that every one of these parties just needs a helping hand - that they're scouring through the couch cushions and hitting up relatives for a few bucks, just so they can scrape a payment together. Can't we as a society help these people? Who could possibly want to miss a mortgage payment?

Turns out, a lot of people. I already discussed people intentionally getting foreclosed and making a few bucks in the process last month. Now there's more: a long Time piece on Las Vegas real estate presents another variation of such a strategy. This variation involves short selling (which is the lender agreeing to let a house be sold for less than the value of the loan and letting this amount fully satisfy the borrower's obligation) and is being promoted by Vegas agent Brooke Boemio:

Boemio specializes in short selling, in a particularly Vegas way. Basically, she finds clients who owe more on their house than the house is worth (and that's about 60% of homeowners in Las Vegas) and sells them a new house similar to the one they've been living in at half the price they paid for their old house. Then she tells them to stop paying the mortgage on their old place until the bank becomes so fed up that it's willing to let the owner sell the house at a huge loss rather than dragging everyone through foreclosure. Since that takes about nine months, many of the owners even rent out their old house in the interim, pocketing a profit.

There you go. Creative, perhaps even profitable - but is it ethical?

It's an entire city of John Dillingers, feeling guiltless for stealing from the banks. Boemio is well aware that short selling isn't ethical [emphasis mine - jmr] and is exacerbating Vegas' economic problems. People, she believes, should make their payments, accept their paper losses and ride out the crash. "Guess what, a______s of Las Vegas. That's what gambling is about. That's what investing is about," she says. "It's greedy. But we're all doing it. Because why not?" It's very hard, she says, to suffer as the one honest person in a town of successful con artists.

I'm not a real estate guru but I've been researching and googling this and I'm not really seeing what's inherently unethical about short selling. First of all, the lender has to agree to it - it's their choice to just go ahead with a foreclosure if they so choose. From the seller's perspective, it's their choice to pursue a short sale and there is damage to their credit (albeit not as bad as a foreclosure) but as the article notes, under the Boemio strategy, "they just bought a new house, so they don't care."

There do seem to be some "ethical" concerns around short selling, in such areas as how and when to disclose to the buyer that the property is a short sale, when to list the short offer as "pending" in the MLS, and the fact that some lenders will drag their feet on approval of a short offer, hoping for a slightly better offer to materialize. I don't think any of this renders the whole concept inherently unethical.

Notice what's missing from this picture? No government "rescue" of borrowers, no posturing politicians, no snouts in the trough - just a resolution of the bloat in real estate using existing processes. The banks may take some losses and try to stick their noses in the trough, and unfortunately they'll probably succeed. Still, let's not think of every borrower behind on their payments as a helpless victim.

Found @ The Conspiracy to Keep You Poor and Stupid

Some notes on new Snoqualmie Casino

SEATTLE, Washington - I saw a few months ago when driving to golf at Mount Si that they were enhancing the little traffic intersection that leads to the casino. It's done - and it's a roundabout. A little traffic circle. Is this Washington in 2008 or New Jersey in 1935? I can't believe a new traffic circle has entered the world.

Only in the hills: I parked in the above-ground garage, drove up a few levels, parked, and took the elevator down. Mistake: The casino is on the top floor of the above-ground garage. The whole place seems to be a single big room with all the restaurants and shops on the perimeter i.e. there's no hallways or side areas.

I was there the day after Thanksgiving and it was not as busy as I was expecting. (The day after X-giving is a brutally busy day in Atlantic City casinos.) There were quite a few dead spread blackjack games and only two craps tables open.

I started with roulette. They made me buy nickels on a $10 game, which is odd. But good - I hit on the first two spins. On the third spin, the amateur dealer screwed up and actually hit me with the ball. Eventually we got the ball back on the wheel and I missed the third spin so I colored up with $400 profit and walked away before I got injured.

I wasn't hungry (day after X-giving) but for the sake of journalism I tried the (barely adequate for its price) $14.95 lunch buffet.

A spot finally opened on a craps table after lunch. I was looking for a weak craps dealer that I could confuse and manipulate but they all seemed competent enough for moderate action. I wanted to shoot but the shooter before me got hot and I decided to color out with $155 profit at craps without even touching the dice. There was a classic grumpy Don't bettor standing right next to the dealer (where they always stand) getting killed - the kind of bitterman who, in defiance of all mathematics, is betting the Don't Come and if a 6 or 8 rolls he tells the dealer to "just leave it."

The big new-casino goof of the night was this: When I cashed out my $855 in chips, the cashier paid me and said "congratulations". Wrong Wrong Wrong Wrong! I've gambled in the best casinos in this country and many of the dumps, and I've never been "congratulated" by the cashier. She has no way of knowing if I'm up $300 or down $5000 or whatever. That needs to stop. I didn't make a scene but sooner or later some crusty guy who's down a lot of money will blow up upon hearing that.

Overall the place seems fine - it's somewhat smaller than the Muckleshoot or Tulalip but I think its proximity to Mount Si golf will have me rolling the bones. Its poker room only has ten tables, you're better off at the Muckleshoot for poker.

P.S. their website (not linked here) is overwrought, you apparently scroll it by moving your mouse above or below the browser window and the music sounds like casino promotional tunes from fifteen years ago.

Football lock of the week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 7-5

I need some Friday action:
This week's pick: Boise St. (-21) vs. Fresno St.

All Picks for This Season

UPDATE: Wow, 61-10 Boise. Being a sensitive and compassionate person, I could barely watch the second half.

My season is done! That makes me 8-5 (61.5%) this year and 27-13-1 (67.5%) over 3 years.

Football lock of the week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 7-4

This week's pick: Stanford (+8.5) @ Cal

All Picks for This Season

UPDATE oops - Cal wins 37-16. Record: 7-5

Football Lock of the Week

NEW YORK, New York -

Record: 6-4

This week's pick: Oregon St. (-3.5) vs. Cal

All Picks for This Season

UPDATEOSU wins, 34-21. Record: 7-4

Football Lock of the Week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 6-3

This week's pick: Oklahoma State (+3.5) @ Texas Tech

Enjoy your one week ranked #2, Tech!

All Picks for This Season

UPDATE: my previous losses were all just 1-4 points so I was due to take a thrashing, TTU won big here. Record: 6-4

Football lock of the week

SEATTLE, Washington -

Record: 5-3

This week's pick: Rice @ UTEP - Over (77.5)

All Picks for This Season

UPDATE: This game ain't even over but it's already a cover on the over, 49-37 Rice. Record: 6-3.